Next-Next Gen: Ten Years Away?

There has been speculation about when Microsoft and Sony will release new consoles. Reports state eight to ten years from 2008, effectively marking the date 2016 to 2018. With the abilities of current ‘next-gen’ consoles, ten years appears to be a valid estimate. After all, developers unlocked the true potential of the Playstation 2 later in its life cycle. But will Microsoft or Sony wait really that long?

On the business side, consoles take ridiculous amounts of money in research, development and prototyping to create the next-next-gen system. During the first year of a console’s life, the publisher loses money. Sony and Microsoft were hit with huge losses during that first year within their gaming divisions. Both companies were able to stay afloat due to the fact that they manufacture other products as well. It has only been two years since the PS3 came out and three for Xbox 360, so speculation about new systems now appears to be premature.

Also, there are many triple-A titles still to be released. Insomniac’s Resistance 2, Guerrilla’s Killzone 2, Epic’s Gears of War 2, Lionhead’s Fable 2, and Black Box’s Skate 2 are being released in the next year. And both consoles still should have a good five years of game development (and for the developers to unlock the full potential of the systems). It may take one to two more years to see that final potential for both systems, but hardware restrictions push more revisions of the systems rather than fully produce a new system. Microsoft’s aging DVD-ROM drive and space-restrictions are a concern for developers right now, but that’s only one part of the console.

So right now it makes more sense to release system revisions rather than a completely new concept next-gen console. System sales are still up, and the newer additions are only helping those sales. Both companies have released new versions of their consoles (the Xbox 360 Elite and updated versions of the PS3 with greater hard drive capabilities). Yet the newest version of the PS3 is not backwards compatible with PS2 games, so there is still the potential for that development. So right about now, a new console may not be just a game system, but more like the failed PSX, an all-in-one media center for the home; but with better support.

It’s clear to see that both the Xbox 360 and the Playstation 3 are by no means done. So why all this speculation about the next consoles? Well, maybe it’s because most people are bored with the console wars debate. Or because we’re an impatient culture. Who knows? But either way, official sources seem to say that the next-next gen console rumors are just hopeful wishes of the gaming world. Right?

Actually, according to at least one source, who wishes to remain anonymous, there is already theoretical planning for the graphics interface for both Sony’s and Microsoft’s new consoles and the plan is not ten years away; it is sooner than you think.

So keep speculating, gaming fans. And I, for one, can’t wait to see what’s next.