Growth of MMOs in 2008

2008 was quite a year for Massively Multiplayer Online Games. The year saw another advance from the unstoppable juggernaut, new challengers that may or may not be pretenders to the throne, a flanking maneuver from Middle-Earth, and a painful death in the depths of outer space.

When charting subscription numbers for MMOs, one concrete way to judge their growth, the old adage proves true; there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Few companies divulge their numbers publicly, leaving estimates and rumors to make up the difference. For example, this Massively.com article provides some interesting insights, but does so using a small sample size.

If not for the heroic mathematical efforts of Bruce Woodcock and others, the only real indication of growth is if a company divulges that information, or the game goes belly-up. Thus, I present a more personal overview of some MMO’s to determine which ones grew and which blew in 2008.

Grew – World of Warcraft: WoW owns the market. Love it or hate it, it capped 2008 off with a fresh expansion and 11.5 million subscribers (Estimates for the next closest title, Warhammer Online, hover around 800,000). The game is the success every other fantasy MMO is compared against. This may be unfair given WoW’s presence, approachability by all ages, and low system requirements, but its growth remains undeniable.

Grew – The Lord of the Rings Online: LotRO is what it is; PvE content with greater storytelling lore than WoW. Though it won’t reach that ability to attract casual and hardcore gamers that WoW does so well, it’s got a niche and it’s growing, evidenced by the success of its recent expansion, Mines of Moria. Best of all, the game doesn’t spend three pages talking about walking.

Grew – EVE Online: EVE Online hasn’t reached the mainstream hype of the fantasy MMOs and may not be for everyone. However, the Sci-Fi setting, unique server setup, and more to do than just leveling, fighting, and grinding has always been intriguing. The game became the first MMO distributed via Steam in 2008, and has already set a new record this year, making it a clear grower even at the ripe old age of five.

Blew – Tabula Rasa: Ouch. Not even Lord British could deliver. This hyped Sci-Fi MMO spent ages in development, finally was released in late 2007, and is now slated to close for good in February 2009. That may be the finest definition of blowing it in 2008.

Blew – Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures: Having to consolidate servers to ensure a decent player-base mere months after release, and having masses of subscribers quit after the first months due to bugs puts this MMO firmly in the “Blew” category. However, there is hope for 2009. After dropping the ball with the player base initially, there are efforts to win the players back. If that happens, this game could be in the “Grew” category for 2009. Nonetheless, it shows that however captivating, nudity and intense violence can’t overcome early bugs and broken promises.

? – Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning: Warhammer Online is eking out its existence by providing what other titles don’t in terms of PvP. The caveat is WAR’s time on the market: in a few more months will WAR suffer the declines that Age of Conan did? Indications seem positive enough to place this in the growing category, but it’s too early to tell.

There you have it. One writer’s opinion on how some of the MMOs fared in 2008. That said, nothing can be more divisive than the players of two distinct MMOs, and your experience may vary. Have a popular MMO you enjoy that’s not on the list? Agree or disagree? Comment!